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Serie A | Gameweek 38
May 26, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Lecce logo

Napoli
0 - 0
Lecce

FT

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and Lecce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli
Friday, May 17 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Lecce 0-2 Atalanta
Saturday, May 18 at 5pm in Serie A

We said: Napoli 1-1 Lecce

While you are inclined to back Napoli to record maximum points on their last game of a wretched year, this side have stunk for much of this season, winning just one in 10 in Serie A. Without a clean sheet since February and winless on home turf since early March, Lecce securing a point in Naples is a strong possibility on the final day. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 58.43%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 19.36%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.51%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
NapoliDrawLecce
58.43% (0.169 0.17) 22.2% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06) 19.36% (-0.114 -0.11)
Both teams to score 53.23% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.8% (0.097999999999999 0.1)45.19% (-0.102 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.46% (0.091000000000001 0.09)67.54% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.85% (0.086999999999989 0.09)15.15% (-0.092000000000001 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.26% (0.168 0.17)43.74% (-0.172 -0.17)
Lecce Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.73% (-0.064 -0.06)37.27% (0.061 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.95% (-0.061 -0.06)74.05% (0.057000000000002 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Napoli 58.42%
    Lecce 19.36%
    Draw 22.2%
NapoliDrawLecce
1-0 @ 10.65% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 10.05% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.92% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-0 @ 6.32% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.24% (0.021 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.08% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.98% (0.024 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.95% (0.019 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.45% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.13% (0.013 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.11% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 58.42%
1-1 @ 10.51% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 5.65% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.9% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.01%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 22.2%
0-1 @ 5.57% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-2 @ 5.19% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.75% (-0.021 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.71% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.61% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 0.91% (-0.009 -0.01)
Other @ 1.62%
Total : 19.36%

How you voted: Napoli vs Lecce

Napoli
57.5%
Draw
30.1%
Lecce
12.3%
73
Head to Head
Sep 30, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 7
Lecce
0-4
Napoli

Gallo (36'), Ramadani (57'), D'Aversa (67'), Gonzalez (81')
Skiri Oestigaard (16'), Osimhen (51'), Gaetano (88'), Politano (90+4' pen.)
Simeone (17'), Kvaratskhelia (33')
Apr 7, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 29
Lecce
1-2
Napoli
Di Lorenzo (18'), Gallo (64' og.)
Aug 31, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Napoli
1-1
Lecce
Elmas (27')
Colombo (31')
Feb 9, 2020 2pm
Gameweek 23
Napoli
2-3
Lecce
Milik (48'), Callejon (90')
Koulibaly (37'), Zielinski (57'), Milik (73'), Rui (80'), Demme (84')
Lapadula (29', 61'), Mancosu (82')
Rispoli (66'), Vigorito (78'), Petriccione (85')
Sep 22, 2019 2pm
Gameweek 4
Lecce
1-4
Napoli
Mancosu (61' pen.)
Tachtsidis (37'), Gabriel (38'), Tabanelli (49')
Llorente (28', 82'), Insigne (40' pen.), Fabian (52')
Ghoulam (22'), Elmas (45'), Fabian (53')
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Tuesday, June 25
 
8pm
 
8pm
Wednesday, June 26
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
Saturday, June 29
 
5pm
 
8pm
Sunday, June 30
Monday, July 1
Tuesday, July 2
Friday, July 5
Saturday, July 6
Tuesday, July 9
Wednesday, July 10
Sunday, July 14
Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England21104
2 Denmark Denmark20202
3 Slovenia Slovenia20202
4 Serbia Serbia20111

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Austria Austria32016
Q France France31205
Q Netherlands Netherlands31114
4 Poland Poland30121

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Romania Romania21013
2 Belgium Belgium21013
3 Slovakia Slovakia21013
4 Ukraine Ukraine21013

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal22006
2 Turkey Turkey21013
3 Czech Republic Czech Republic20111
4 Georgia Georgia20111


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