Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 42.67%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 31.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.