Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 48.79%. A win for Roma had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.14%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.