Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 55.26%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 23.89% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.07%) and 0-1 (6.69%). The likeliest Genoa win was 2-1 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.