Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 48.33%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Castellon had a probability of 25.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.36%), while for a Castellon win it was 0-1 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.