Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alcorcon win with a probability of 36.6%. A win for Burgos had a probability of 33.73% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alcorcon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.37%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Burgos win was 0-1 (12.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.

Result
Alcorcon	Draw	Burgos
36.6% ( -4.9)	29.66% ( 0.44)	33.73% ( 4.46)

Both teams to score 42.97% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.91% (

-0.55)

64.08% (

0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.75% (

-0.4)

83.24% (

0.39)

Alcorcon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.52% (

-3.27)

33.47% (

3.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.89% (

-3.75)

70.11% (

3.74)

Burgos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.59% (

3.04)

35.41% (

-3.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.83% (

3.02)

72.17% (

-3.03)

Score Analysis

Alcorcon 36.6%

Burgos 33.73%

Draw 29.65%

Alcorcon	Draw	Burgos
1-0 @ 12.97% ( -0.93) 2-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.59) 2-0 @ 7.1% ( -1.22) 3-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.49) 3-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.73) 3-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.49% Total : 36.6%	1-1 @ 13.46% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 11.85% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.65%	0-1 @ 12.3% ( 1.2) 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0.64) 0-2 @ 6.39% ( 1.08) 1-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.4) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.52) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.1% Total : 33.73%