Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 40.33%. A draw had a probability of 30.5% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 29.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.28%) and 2-1 (7.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.38%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burgos would win this match.