Copa del Rey | First Round
Nov 2, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Estadio Jose Rico Perez

Hercules
1 - 2
Burgos

Grego (35' og.)
Josema (60'), Nolan (83'), N'Djoli (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Nino (19'), Lopez (51')
Elgezabal (77'), Badiashile (89'), Gonzalez (90'), Munoz (90+3')
Coverage of the Copa del Rey First Round clash between Hercules and Burgos.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hercules

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Hercules 0-1 Elche
Wednesday, September 20 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Burgos

All competitions
Last Game: Burgos 1-1 Zaragoza
Monday, October 30 at 8pm in Segunda Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Hercules had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Hercules win was 1-0 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burgos would win this match.

Result
HerculesDrawBurgos
30.56% (-1.453 -1.45)28.29% (-0.133 -0.13)41.15% (1.588 1.59)
Both teams to score 45.95% (-0.095999999999997 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.93% (0.107 0.11)60.07% (-0.104 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.71% (0.079999999999998 0.08)80.29% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Hercules Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.45% (-1.013 -1.01)35.55% (1.015 1.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.68% (-1.062 -1.06)72.32% (1.064 1.06)
Burgos Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.3% (0.959 0.96)28.7% (-0.956 -0.96)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.47% (1.182 1.18)64.53% (-1.18 -1.18)
Score Analysis
    Hercules 30.56%
    Burgos 41.14%
    Draw 28.28%
HerculesDrawBurgos
1-0 @ 10.55% (-0.34 -0.34)
2-1 @ 6.81% (-0.224 -0.22)
2-0 @ 5.46% (-0.332 -0.33)
3-1 @ 2.35% (-0.145 -0.15)
3-0 @ 1.88% (-0.17 -0.17)
3-2 @ 1.47% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 30.56%
1-1 @ 13.17% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 10.2% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.25% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 28.28%
0-1 @ 12.73% (0.28 0.28)
1-2 @ 8.22% (0.177 0.18)
0-2 @ 7.95% (0.383 0.38)
1-3 @ 3.42% (0.162 0.16)
0-3 @ 3.31% (0.243 0.24)
2-3 @ 1.77% (0.037 0.04)
1-4 @ 1.07% (0.077 0.08)
0-4 @ 1.03% (0.101 0.1)
Other @ 1.65%
Total : 41.14%

How you voted: Hercules vs Burgos

Hercules
33.3%
Draw
23.8%
Burgos
42.9%
21