Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 51.17%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 22.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (8.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.