Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 36.58%. A win for Real Oviedo had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.28%) and 2-1 (7.04%). The likeliest Real Oviedo win was 0-1 (12.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Burgos in this match.