Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 48.32%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 23.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.