Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 51.47%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 21.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.36%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (8.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.