Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 39.11%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.84%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 0-1 (11.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.