Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.18%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 1-0 (11.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.

Result
Ponferradina	Draw	Alaves
29.78% ( 0.52)	29.33% ( 0.07)	40.89% ( -0.59)

Both teams to score 42.89% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.28% (

-0.07)

63.72% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.02% (

-0.05)

82.99% (

0.05)

Ponferradina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.85% (

0.37)

38.15% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.09% (

0.36)

74.91% (

-0.36)

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.35% (

-0.38)

30.65% (

0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.1% (

-0.45)

66.9% (

0.45)

Score Analysis

Ponferradina 29.77%

Alaves 40.88%

Draw 29.32%

Ponferradina	Draw	Alaves
1-0 @ 11.26% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 6.42% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.74% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.64% Total : 29.77%	1-1 @ 13.32% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 11.69% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.32%	0-1 @ 13.82% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 8.18% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 7.88% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.31% Total : 40.88%