Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.18%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 1-0 (11.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.