Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 40.6%. A win for Racing de Santander had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.06%) and 2-1 (7.89%). The likeliest Racing de Santander win was 0-1 (11.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.