Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 52.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Ponferradina had a probability of 23.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Ponferradina win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirandes would win this match.