Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 36.76%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 34.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.63%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 1-0 (11.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.