Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 57.73%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for UD Ibiza had a probability of 16.87%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a UD Ibiza win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alaves would win this match.