Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for FC Andorra had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest FC Andorra win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.