Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alcorcon win with a probability of 39.64%. A win for Racing de Santander had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alcorcon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.82%) and 2-1 (7.79%). The likeliest Racing de Santander win was 0-1 (11.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alcorcon would win this match.