Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alcorcon win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for Villarreal II had a probability of 29.37% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alcorcon win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.3%) and 1-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Villarreal II win was 1-0 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.