Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal II win with a probability of 36.51%. A win for Amorebieta had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal II win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.79%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Amorebieta win was 0-1 (11.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal II would win this match.