Scottish Premiership Gameweek 30
Mar 14, 2026 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Rugby Park
  • Michael Schjönning-Larsen 17' goal
  • Tom Lowery 65' yellowcard
  • Dominic Thompson 70' yellowcard
  • Rory McKenzie 70' yellowcard
  • Marley Watkins 83' yellowcard
  • Jack Thomson 83' yellowcard
  • Lewis Mayo 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Oisin McEntee 35'
  • yellowcard Islam Chesnokov 46'
  • yellowcard Jordi Altena 56'
  • yellowcard Sabah Kerjota 81'
  • yellowcard Frankie Kent 87'
  • yellowcard Elton Kabangu 87'
  • yellowcard Elton Kabangu 88'
  • yellowcard Frankie Kent 88'
  • yellowcard Frankie Kent 89'

Kilmarnock vs Hearts - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Kilmarnock

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Falkirk 5 - 1 Kilmarnock
Goals scored
34
Top scorer
Tyreece John-Jules

Hearts

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Hearts 1 - 0 Aberdeen
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
Lawrence Shankland

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 52.98%. A win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 24.18% and a draw had a probability of 22.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.03%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Kilmarnock win was 2-1 (6.06%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.

Result

Kilmarnock 24.18% (-0.08)
Draw 22.83% (+0.03)
Hearts 52.98% (+0.03)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.72% (-0.07)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.54% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 19.46% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 58.72% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 41.28% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 36.65% (-0.07)
Under 3.5 63.35% (+0.07)
Over 4.5 22.36% (-0.07)
Under 4.5 77.64% (+0.07)

First Half Winner

Kilmarnock 22.96%
Draw 38.42%
Hearts 38.62%

Team To Score First

Kilmarnock 33.93%
No Goal 4.85% (+0.02)
Hearts 61.22% (-0.03)

Corners

Over 8 58.94%
Equal 8 11.3%
Under 8 29.76%
Over 9 47.32%
Equal 9 11.62%
Under 9 41.06%
Over 10.5 36.36%
Under 10.5 63.64%

Kilmarnock Goals

Over 1.5 29.91% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 70.09% (+0.07)
Over 2.5 10.94% (-0.05)
Under 2.5 89.06% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 3.37% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 96.63% (+0.02)

Hearts Goals

Over 0.5 81.87% (+0.03)
Under 0.5 18.13% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 53.87%
Under 1.5 46.13%
Over 2.5 27.63% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 72.37% (+0.03)
Over 3.5 11.75% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 88.25% (+0.04)

Score analysis

Kilmarnock 24.19%
Draw 22.84%
Hearts 52.98%
Kilmarnock
2-1 @ 6.06% (-0.02)
1-0 @ 5.59%
2-0 @ 3.31% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 2.54%
3-2 @ 2.3% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 1.25% (-0.02)
Other @ 3.14% (-0.03)
Total : 24.19%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.37% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.91%
0-0 @ 4.85% (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.48%
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 22.84%
Hearts
1-2 @ 9.91% (+0.01)
0-1 @ 9.03% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 8.12% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 5.85%
0-3 @ 4.86% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 3.69%
Other @ 11.52% (-0.04)
Total : 52.98%

Head to Head

Scottish Premiership
Dec 3, 2025 7.45pm
Scottish Premiership
Dec 3, 2025 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Lawrence Shankland 49' goal
  • Tómas Bent Magnússon 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 2'
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 3'
  • goal Bruce Anderson 90'
  • yellowcard James Brown 90'+6'
Scottish Premiership
Oct 18, 2025 5.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Premiership
Oct 18, 2025 3.00pm
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 38
May 18, 2025 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Rugby Park
  • Liam Donnelly 40' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Adam Forrester 19'
  • redcard Yan Dhanda 38'
  • goal Stephen Kingsley 89'
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 24
Jan 25, 2025 3.00pm
3
2
HT : 1 0
FT Tynecastle Park
  • Elton Kabangu 7' goal
  • Jorge Grant 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Jamie McCart 58' goal
  • Jorge Grant 61' goal
  • Malachi Boateng 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 42'
  • yellowcard Kyle Magennis 45'+3'
  • goal Bobby Wales 50'
  • yellowcard Marley Watkins 45'+5'
  • yellowcard Danny Armstrong 54'
  • goal Fraser Murray 67'
  • yellowcard David Watson 81'