Scottish Premiership Gameweek 30
Mar 14, 2026 8.00pm
Rugby Park

Kilmarnock vs Hearts - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Kilmarnock

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Falkirk 5 - 1 Kilmarnock
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Tyreece John-Jules

Hearts

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Hearts 1 - 0 Aberdeen
Goals scored
52
Top scorer
Lawrence Shankland

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Hearts win with a probability of 53.16%. A win for Kilmarnock has a probability of 24.08% and a draw has a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (9.04%) and 0-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Kilmarnock win is 2-1 (6.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.36%).

Result

Kilmarnock 24.08%
Draw 22.8%
Hearts 53.16%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.72%

Goals

Over 1.5 80.56%
Under 1.5 19.44%
Over 2.5 58.76%
Under 2.5 41.24%
Over 3.5 36.71%
Under 3.5 63.29%
Over 4.5 22.42%
Under 4.5 77.58%

First Half Winner

Kilmarnock 22.96%
Draw 38.42%
Hearts 38.62%

Team To Score First

Kilmarnock 33.93%
No Goal 4.84%
Hearts 61.23%

Corners

Over 8 58.95%
Equal 8 11.3%
Under 8 29.75%
Over 9 47.33%
Equal 9 11.62%
Under 9 41.05%
Over 10.5 36.36%
Under 10.5 63.64%

Kilmarnock Goals

Over 1.5 29.78%
Under 1.5 70.22%
Over 2.5 10.85%
Under 2.5 89.15%
Over 3.5 3.34%
Under 3.5 96.66%

Hearts Goals

Over 0.5 81.96%
Under 0.5 18.04%
Over 1.5 54.01%
Under 1.5 45.99%
Over 2.5 27.76%
Under 2.5 72.24%
Over 3.5 11.85%
Under 3.5 88.15%

Score analysis

Kilmarnock 24.07%
Draw 22.8%
Hearts 53.16%
Kilmarnock
2-1 @ 6.03%
1-0 @ 5.59%
2-0 @ 3.3%
3-1 @ 2.52%
3-2 @ 2.29%
3-0 @ 1.23%
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 24.07%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.36%
2-2 @ 5.9%
0-0 @ 4.84%
3-3 @ 1.47%
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 22.8%
Hearts
1-2 @ 9.91%
0-1 @ 9.04%
0-2 @ 8.15%
1-3 @ 5.87%
0-3 @ 4.87%
2-3 @ 3.7%
Other @ 11.62%
Total : 53.16%

Head to Head

Scottish Premiership
Dec 3, 2025 7.45pm
Scottish Premiership
Dec 3, 2025 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Lawrence Shankland 49' goal
  • Tómas Bent Magnússon 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 2'
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 3'
  • goal Bruce Anderson 90'
  • yellowcard James Brown 90'+6'
Scottish Premiership
Oct 18, 2025 5.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Premiership
Oct 18, 2025 3.00pm
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 38
May 18, 2025 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Rugby Park
  • Liam Donnelly 40' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Adam Forrester 19'
  • redcard Yan Dhanda 38'
  • goal Stephen Kingsley 89'
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 24
Jan 25, 2025 3.00pm
3
2
HT : 1 0
FT Tynecastle Park
  • Elton Kabangu 7' goal
  • Jorge Grant 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Jamie McCart 58' goal
  • Jorge Grant 61' goal
  • Malachi Boateng 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 42'
  • yellowcard Kyle Magennis 45'+3'
  • goal Bobby Wales 50'
  • yellowcard Marley Watkins 45'+5'
  • yellowcard Danny Armstrong 54'
  • goal Fraser Murray 67'
  • yellowcard David Watson 81'