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Scottish Premiership

Kilmarnock logo
Scottish Premiership | Gameweek 30
Apr 1, 2023 at 3pm UK
Rugby Park
Hearts logo

Kilmarnock
2 - 1
Hearts

Armstrong (22' pen.), Doidge (45')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Shankland (7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Scottish Premiership clash between Kilmarnock and Hearts, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Kilmarnock

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Kilmarnock 1-1 St Johnstone
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership

Hearts

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Aberdeen 3-0 Hearts
Saturday, March 18 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 42.49%. A win for Hearts had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Hearts win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.

Result
KilmarnockDrawHearts
42.49% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)25.47%32.04% (0.0059999999999931 0.01)
Both teams to score 55.07%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.32% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)48.68% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.21% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)70.79% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Kilmarnock Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.19% (-0.0069999999999908 -0.01)22.8% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.49% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)56.51% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Hearts Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.34% (0.0020000000000095 0)28.66% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.53% (0.0030000000000001 0)64.47% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Kilmarnock 42.49%
    Hearts 32.04%
    Draw 25.47%
KilmarnockDrawHearts
1-0 @ 9.66% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
2-1 @ 8.92% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 7.14% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 4.4% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 3.52% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 2.75%
4-1 @ 1.63%
4-0 @ 1.3% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.02% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 42.49%
1-1 @ 12.07%
0-0 @ 6.54%
2-2 @ 5.58%
3-3 @ 1.15%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.47%
0-1 @ 8.17% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-2 @ 7.55% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-2 @ 5.1% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 3.14% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.32%
0-3 @ 2.13%
1-4 @ 0.98%
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 32.04%

How you voted: Kilmarnock vs Hearts

Kilmarnock
25.0%
Draw
8.3%
Hearts
66.7%
12
Head to Head
Dec 17, 2022 3pm
Hearts
3-1
Kilmarnock
Ginnelly (19'), Shankland (29', 89' pen.)
Taylor (73')
Donnelly (28')
Oct 9, 2022 3pm
Kilmarnock
2-2
Hearts
Stokes (47'), Lafferty (59')
Armstrong (57')
Humphrys (62'), Atkinson (90+4')
Aug 31, 2022 7.45pm
Second Round
Hearts
0-1
Kilmarnock
Cameron (21')
Donnelly (13')
Feb 5, 2020 7.45pm
Hearts
2-3
Kilmarnock
Clare (79' pen.), Halkett (89')
Clare (35'), Souttar (48'), Naismith (65'), Irving (86')
Findlay (24'), Burke (38'), Brophy (50')
Power (52'), Branescu (78')
Branescu (80')
> Match Report
Nov 23, 2019 3pm
Kilmarnock
3-0
Hearts
Burke (9', 16'), Brophy (14')
El Makrini (62')
> Match Report