Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 36.88%. A win for Arbroath had a probability of 35.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ayr United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Arbroath win was 0-1 (10.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.