Scottish Championship Gameweek 33
Apr 11, 2026 3.00pm
Somerset Park

Ayr United vs Arbroath - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Ayr United

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Apr 7, 2026 7.45pm
Ayr 0 - 3 Dunfermline
Goals scored
34
Top scorer
Anton Dowds

Arbroath

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Apr 4, 2026 3.00pm
Arbroath 2 - 4 St Johnstone
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Findlay Marshall

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ayr United win with a probability of 36.88%. A win for Arbroath has a probability of 35.71% and a draw has a probability of 27.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ayr United win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Arbroath win is 0-1 (10.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.67%).

Result

Ayr United 36.88% (-0.05)
Draw 27.41%
Arbroath 35.71% (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.61% (-0.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.96% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 29.04% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 45.88% (-0.10)
Under 2.5 54.12% (+0.10)
Over 3.5 24.93% (-0.13)
Under 3.5 75.07% (+0.12)
Over 4.5 12.88% (-0.06)
Under 4.5 87.12% (+0.07)

First Half Winner

Ayr United 30.24%
Draw 43.64%
Arbroath 26.11%

Team To Score First

Ayr United 47.58% (-0.02)
No Goal 8.54% (+0.02)
Arbroath 43.88% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 51.16% (+0.50)
Equal 8 11.99% (+0.02)
Under 8 36.86% (-0.51)
Over 9 39.56% (+0.43)
Equal 9 11.6% (+0.07)
Under 9 48.84% (-0.50)
Over 10.5 29.25% (+0.34)
Under 10.5 70.75% (-0.35)

Ayr United Goals

Over 1.5 34.72% (-0.13)
Under 1.5 65.28% (+0.13)
Over 2.5 12.98% (-0.09)
Under 2.5 87.02% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 3.84% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 96.16% (+0.04)

Arbroath Goals

Over 0.5 68.53% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 31.47% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 34.06% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 65.94% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 12.6% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 87.4% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 3.88% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 96.12% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Ayr United 36.89%
Draw 27.41%
Arbroath 35.71%
Ayr United
1-0 @ 10.42% (+0.02)
2-1 @ 8.18%
2-0 @ 6.34% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.53% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.42%
3-2 @ 2.24% (-0.01)
Other @ 3.76% (-0.03)
Total : 36.89%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.67% (+0.04)
0-0 @ 8.54% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 5.17% (-0.04)
Other @ 0.08% (-0.01)
Total : 27.41%
Arbroath
0-1 @ 10.09%
1-2 @ 7.99% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 6.06% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 3.36%
0-3 @ 2.36% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.05%
Other @ 3.8%
Total : 35.71%

Head to Head

Scottish Championship Gameweek 25
Mar 3, 2026 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Gayfield Park
  • Ryan Dow 46' yellowcard
  • Harry Cochrane 55' yellowcard
  • Gavin Reilly 67' yellowcard
  • Findlay Marshall 74' goal
  • Dapo Mebude 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kyle Ure 61'
  • yellowcard Nicholas McAllister 61'
  • yellowcard J. Bonnar 73'
  • yellowcard Marco Rus 73'
  • yellowcard F. Turley 85'
  • goal Anton Dowds 86'
Scottish Championship
Nov 15, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Championship Gameweek 1
Aug 1, 2025 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish League Cup
Jul 19, 2025 3.00pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Championship Gameweek 33
Apr 13, 2024 3.00pm
5
0
HT : 3 0
FT Somerset Park
  • Kurt Willoughby 24' goal
  • Frankie Musonda 32' goal
  • Anton Dowds 41' goal
  • Ben Dempsey 68' goal
  • Logan Chalmers 90' goal
  • yellowcard David Gold 27'
  • yellowcard Leighton McIntosh 59'
Scottish Championship Gameweek 14
Jan 23, 2024 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Somerset Park
  • Ben Dempsey 74' goal
  • Logan Chalmers 77' goal
  • Roy Syla 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kyle Robinson 42'
  • yellowcard Colin Hamilton 55'
  • yellowcard Keaghan Jacobs 63'
  • yellowcard Scott Stewart 63'