Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arbroath win with a probability of 40.88%. A win for Greenock Morton had a probability of 31% and a draw had a probability of 28.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arbroath win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Greenock Morton win was 1-0 (10.02%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.