Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 69.33%. A draw had a probability of 19.08% and a win for Sochi had a probability of 11.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%) , while for a Sochi win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.