Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Rayyan win with a probability of 59.53%. A draw had a probability of 20.27% and a win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al-Rayyan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.33%) and 0-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.52%) , while for a Al Gharafa win it was 2-1 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.