Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Gharafa win with a probability of 43.64%. A win for Al-Sailiya had a probability of 31.78% and a draw had a probability of 24.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al Gharafa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.83%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Al-Sailiya win was 2-1 (7.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.