Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Arabi win with a probability of 41.52%. A win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 35.84% and a draw had a probability of 22.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al Arabi win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.22%) and 3-1 (5.3%). The likeliest Al Gharafa win was 1-2 (7.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.