Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tractor Sazi win with a probability of 46.25%. A win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tractor Sazi win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.87%). The likeliest Al Gharafa win was 1-0 (7.53%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.