Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Istra 1961 win with a probability of 47.19%. A draw had a probability of 26.52% and a win for Vukovar had a probability of 26.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Istra 1961 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%) , while for a Vukovar win it was 0-1 (8.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.