Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 58.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.85% and a win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.94%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%) , while for a NK Istra 1961 win it was 1-0 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.