Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 54.69%. A draw had a probability of 26.41% and a win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 18.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.47%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%) , while for a HNK Rijeka win it was 0-1 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood.