Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 56.51%. A draw had a probability of 24.15% and a win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 19.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.55%) and 2-0 (10.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%) , while for a NK Istra 1961 win it was 0-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.