Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 57.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.94% and a win for NK Lokomotiva had a probability of 18.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.41%) and 2-0 (10.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%) , while for a NK Lokomotiva win it was 0-1 (5.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.