Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vukovar win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 30.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vukovar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 (9.41%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.