Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Istra 1961 win with a probability of 36.12%. A win for NK Varazdin had a probability of 35.22% and a draw had a probability of 28.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Istra 1961 win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest NK Varazdin win was 0-1 (10.68%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.