Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Varazdin win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Vukovar had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Varazdin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Vukovar win was 0-1 (8.59%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.