Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 53.31%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 21.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (7.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.