Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 44.55%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.