Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Moreirense |
| 44.7% | 27.44% | 27.85% |
| Both teams to score 46.96% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.85% | 58.15% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.19% | 78.8% |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.09% | 25.9% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.11% | 60.89% |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.37% | 36.63% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.58% | 73.41% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 12.81% 2-1 @ 8.69% 2-0 @ 8.66% 3-1 @ 3.91% 3-0 @ 3.9% 3-2 @ 1.97% 4-1 @ 1.32% 4-0 @ 1.32% Other @ 2.12% Total : 44.7% | 1-1 @ 12.87% 0-0 @ 9.49% 2-2 @ 4.37% Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.44% | 0-1 @ 9.53% 1-2 @ 6.46% 0-2 @ 4.79% 1-3 @ 2.16% 0-3 @ 1.6% 2-3 @ 1.46% Other @ 1.85% Total : 27.85% |