Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 53.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 22.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.