Primeira Liga | Gameweek 3

Aug 20, 2022 at 8.30pm UK

Estádio Do Dragão

Porto
3 - 0
Sporting Lisbon

Evanilson (42'), Uribe (78' pen.), Galeno (86' pen.)
Sanusi (41')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ugarte (16'), Neto (40'), Morita (42'), Reis (76')
Porro (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

Last Six:

Last Game: Vizela 0-1 Porto
Sunday, August 14 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Porto	2	5	6
2	Benfica	2	5	6
3	Boavista	2	2	6

Sporting Lisbon

Last Six:

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, August 13 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
5	Braga	2	3	4
6	Sporting Lisbon	2	3	4
7	Estoril Praia	3	1	4

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 50.15%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 26.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
50.15% ( -1.21)	23.08% ( 0.3)	26.77% ( 0.91)

Both teams to score 59.86% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.11% (

-0.62)

40.89% (

0.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.72% (

-0.63)

63.27% (

0.63)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.53% (

-0.66)

16.47% (

0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.83% (

-1.2)

46.17% (

1.2)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.66% (

0.35)

28.34% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.92% (

0.44)

64.08% (

-0.44)

Score Analysis

Porto 50.15%

Sporting Lisbon 26.77%

Draw 23.08%

Porto	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 7.59% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 4.57% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.39% Total : 50.15%	1-1 @ 10.61% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.08%	1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 5.88% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 3.71% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.57% Total : 26.77%