Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 39%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.