Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 50.6%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 23.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.