Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.