Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 36

May 14, 2021 at 8pm UK

St James' Park

Newcastle
3 - 4
Man City

Krafth (25'), Joelinton (45+6' pen.), Willock (62')
Ritchie (36'), Shelvey (59')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Cancelo (39'), Torres (42', 64', 66')
Rodri (44'), Cancelo (56')

Reaction

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola reacts on May 8, 2021

Pep Guardiola upset no fans were in stadium for Newcastle thriller

The visitors came from behind twice to win 4-3 on Tyneside.

May 14, 22:58

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 82.76%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 5.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.68%) and 0-1 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.48%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-0 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Newcastle United	Draw	Manchester City
5.68%	11.56%	82.76%

Both teams to score 45.08%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.49%

31.51%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47%

53%

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.76%

52.24%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.84%

86.16%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.4%

5.6%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

78.26%

21.74%

Score Analysis

Newcastle United 5.68%

Manchester City 82.75%

Draw 11.56%

Newcastle United	Draw	Manchester City
1-0 @ 1.9% 2-1 @ 1.78% Other @ 2% Total : 5.68%	1-1 @ 5.48% 0-0 @ 2.93% 2-2 @ 2.56% Other @ 0.6% Total : 11.56%	0-2 @ 12.16% 0-3 @ 11.68% 0-1 @ 8.43% 0-4 @ 8.42% 1-2 @ 7.9% 1-3 @ 7.59% 1-4 @ 5.47% 0-5 @ 4.86% 1-5 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 2.46% 0-6 @ 2.34% 2-4 @ 1.78% 1-6 @ 1.52% 2-5 @ 1.02% 0-7 @ 0.96% Other @ 3.02% Total : 82.75%