Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 47.24%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.85%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Brentford win was 2-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Brentford would win this match.