Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 5

Sep 16, 2023 at 3pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
3 - 1
Crystal Palace

Duran (87'), Luiz (90+8' pen.), Bailey (90+11')
McGinn (17'), Zaniolo (45+4'), Cash (86'), Duran (90+15'), Bailey (90+14')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Edouard (47')
Eze (17'), Hughes (53'), Ward (90+8')

The Match

Match Report

Aston Villa extend their winning record at Villa Park with a comeback victory over Crystal Palace.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Liverpool 3-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, September 3 at 2pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Crystal Palace

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Crystal Palace 3-2 Wolves
Sunday, September 3 at 2pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 43.94%. A win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Crystal Palace win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Crystal Palace
43.94% ( 0.08)	25.79% ( -0.01)	30.28% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 53.26% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.33% (

0.03)

50.68% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.42% (

0.02)

72.58% (

-0.02)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.03% (

0.05)

22.97% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.24% (

0.07)

56.76% (

-0.07)

Crystal Palace Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.15% (

-0.03)

30.85% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.87% (

-0.04)

67.13% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 43.93%

Crystal Palace 30.28%

Draw 25.78%

Aston Villa	Draw	Crystal Palace
1-0 @ 10.42% 2-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.42% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 2.09% Total : 43.93%	1-1 @ 12.25% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.3% 3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.78%	0-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.21% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.01% Total : 30.28%